EU’s 60.3% Anti-Dumping Duty “Heavy Hammer” Falls: Chinese Candle Exports to EU Hit Near Seven-Year Low, Is Transshipment Trade a “Lifeline”?

Staff Reporter/Analyst

On January 26, 2026, the European Commission formally issued its final anti-dumping ruling on candles and similar products originating in China, imposing hefty duties of 56.7% to 60.3% for a period of five years. The implementation of this ruling has brought Chinese candle exports to the EU face‑to‑face with the most severe trade barrier since the EU first imposed anti‑dumping duties on Chinese candles in 2009.

Data shockwave: export volumes already show “cliff‑edge” decline

Under the shadow of the anti‑dumping investigation, Chinese candle export data to the EU have already shown a clear downward trend.

2024 was a “peak year” for Chinese candle exports to the EU. According to data released by industry research institutions, China’s candle exports to the EU reached 173,300 tonnes in 2024, accounting for 44% of China’s total candle exports that year and approximately 60% of total EU imports of similar products. In value terms, the EU’s total imports of candles from outside the bloc stood at €513 million in 2024, of which imports from China reached as high as €382 million, representing 75% of the total. The Netherlands, Germany and France were the main destinations for Chinese candle exports to the EU; the Netherlands alone imported €112 million, accounting for 22% of the EU’s total imports from outside the bloc.

However, since the launch of the anti‑dumping investigation, this growth trend has reversed sharply. Affected by the investigation, China’s candle exports fell to 23,800 tonnes in December 2025, a month‑on‑month decline of 7.06% and a year‑on‑year decline of 27.72%, hitting the lowest level for the same month in nearly seven years. Exports to key markets such as Poland, Italy and the Netherlands have all dropped significantly.

Industry pressure: China’s main candle‑producing regions face a shake‑out

China’s candle industry is highly concentrated, with major production bases in Ningbo (Zhejiang Province), Qingdao (Shandong Province), Anhui Province and other places. In the final ruling, some companies that actively cooperated with the investigation received the lower rate of 56.7%, while the majority of small and medium‑sized enterprises that did not participate were assigned the highest rate of 60.3%.

As a core global producer and exporter of candles, China ships huge volumes to Europe. The high duty rates have directly driven up export costs, and most SMEs, whose competitive advantage has long been based on price, now face a situation where “exporting means losing money”. At the same time, some EU importers have already begun shifting orders to countries such as Vietnam. Data show that Vietnam’s share of EU candle imports is only 6%, offering very limited replacement capacity; in the short term, the EU market will find it difficult to find a source of supply that can fully replace Chinese products.

The EU’s final anti‑dumping ruling is not an isolated event. Previously, the United States imposed anti‑dumping measures on Chinese candles; in 2006, the US Department of Commerce imposed a comprehensive anti‑dumping duty as high as 108% on candle imports from China. With the two largest global candle consumer markets – the US and the EU – now closing their doors to China one after another, the severity of the international trade environment facing China’s candle industry is self‑evident.

Observations on corporate responses: transshipment trade becomes a focal point

Faced with anti‑dumping duties exceeding 60%, Chinese candle companies are urgently seeking ways to cope. Among them, third‑country transshipment trade has emerged as one of the most closely watched short‑term options.

So‑called third‑country transshipment trade means that a Chinese factory first exports goods to a Southeast Asian country (such as Malaysia, Thailand or Indonesia), where container switching operations are carried out and local certificates of origin are obtained; the goods are then cleared into the EU market under the identity of “Southeast Asian origin”. In theory, if the operation is compliant and the certificates of origin are genuine and verifiable, this transshipment model can effectively avoid the 60.3% anti‑dumping duty, allowing customers to receive goods at a largely stable price, thereby preserving orders.

However, transshipment trade is not without its hurdles. Industry insiders point out that compliant transshipment operations require meeting several conditions simultaneously: strong port handling capacity and efficient customs clearance, fast and verifiable issuance of certificates of origin, full monitoring of the container‑switching process without unpacking or swapping goods, a complete documentation chain that can withstand subsequent EU customs spot checks, and no problems at either the first‑leg export rebate stage or the second‑leg customs clearance stage.

More importantly, the EU has explicitly stepped up anti‑circumvention enforcement, focusing on inspecting Chinese products transshipped through third countries. Pseudo‑transshipment practices will face heavy fines and seizure of goods. This means that any attempt to circumvent the tariffs through simple relabelling or false origin declarations carries extremely high risks.

Long‑term breakthrough: product upgrading and market diversification

If transshipment trade is a “stop‑bleeding” solution to the short‑term crisis, then product upgrading and market diversification are the true “root‑cause cures”.

On the product side, Chinese candle companies have long relied on price competition as their core advantage, resulting in severe product homogeneity and weak brand pricing power. Under the 60.3% tariff barrier, the low‑price strategy is no longer sustainable. In the future, upgrading towards high‑end scented candles, natural wax‑based candles and environmentally sustainable products, and building proprietary brands to increase added value and bargaining power, will be crucial paths for companies to break through.

On the market side, the systemic risk of over‑reliance on the US and European markets has been fully exposed. Companies urgently need to explore emerging markets such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia and Africa, diversify their export risks and reduce dependence on any single market. At the same time, some companies are beginning to consider the feasibility of setting up overseas production facilities – establishing manufacturing bases inside or near the EU to circumvent trade barriers at source.

Observations and outlook

The EU’s decision to impose a 60.3% anti‑dumping duty on Chinese candles is both a “heavy hammer” for China’s candle industry and an opportunity to force an industrial upgrade. As one industry insider put it, “In the past, shipping directly from Ningbo, Qingdao or Yiwu to Europe was the norm, and now costs have doubled; but another path – third‑country transshipment – is being re‑lit by more and more candle factories.”

Yet transshipment trade is by no means a long‑term solution. The EU is stepping up its anti‑circumvention investigations year by year, and once the EU reaches stricter rules of origin agreements with Southeast Asian countries, the compliance costs of transshipment routes will rise sharply. The real question for Chinese candle companies is perhaps this: in the face of five years of high tariff barriers, will they choose to “tough it out” and gradually lose customers, or seize the opportunity to complete the industrial upgrade from “low‑cost OEM” to “branded globalisation”?

The answer is still being written. But one thing is certain – China’s candle industry must make longer‑term strategic preparations for the “post‑anti‑dumping era”.